Lok Sabha Election Survey Results
National Democratic Alliance is likely to get hold of seats between 212 and 232 seats if the Lok Sabha elections were held today where BJP alone would be winning seats between 193 and 213. This is according to an opinion poll done for a TV channel. This poll was based on a survey of six states where the UPA was placed at a distant second with seat between 119 and 139 and Congress was projected to win seats between 94 and 110.
The projections were made based on surveys in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Delhi in CNN-IBN poll conducted by CSDS and Lokniti. The seat figures are approximately the same as the projections done by the same pollsters in January but the popularity rating of Narendra Modi has dipped significantly.
In January survey 36 percent of respondents had chosen Modi as their preferred PM which has now come down to 31 percent. On the contrary, there has been an increase of one percentage each in those picking Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh.
The BJP’s projected vote shares are showing marginally down as per the poll compared to the January estimate and also the Congress vote share are showing marginally down. The NDA continues to enjoy a significant lead with 33 percent compared to 26 percent Congress.
Excluding these two parties, the Trinamool Congress is expected to be the biggest party with 20 to 28 seats to be won as per the survey. Other players projected in the survey for the 16th Lok Sabha are the Left with 15-23 seats, AIADMK with 14-20 seats, YSR Congress and SP with 11-17 seats each, BJD, TDP and DMK with 10-16 seats each and BSP with 8-14 seats.
If the projection goes right then it would be certain that the next government would be head by Modi in New Delhi and would be ruled together by the existing NDA joining hands with smaller regional parties. The Congress or any third party would not be in a position to form a government in such a scenario.
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